<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">中央社【韋樞】</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">中國土地改革協會理事長卓輝華表示,今年是出生人口數最後一次逾</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬人,</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2025</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年人口高峰達</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2380</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬人;預料</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2020</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年到</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2030</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年的</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">Y</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">世代嬰兒潮進入消費高峰,將出現第</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">波房市榮景。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">卓輝華表示,從</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1946</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年至</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2016</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年,台灣人口從</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">600</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">餘萬人增加到</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2350</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬人,都市化人口也從</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">30%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">增加到</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">80%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">的高水準。穩定的土地住宅需求,締造了五波房地產市場榮景,也讓台北市的新屋平均房價從每坪新台幣</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">3000</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">餘元,上漲到</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2014</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年第五波房地產景氣高峰點的每坪</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">85</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬元。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">但是人口穩定成長趨勢在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年就開始改變,人口結構緩慢變化,勢將衝擊國家土地開發、住宅供需與房市大翻轉的變局。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">卓輝華指出,</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年是台灣勞動年齡人口數最高峰的</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1737</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬人,</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2016</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年之後將平均年減</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">18</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬人。</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年是台灣人口紅利最高峰,估計在</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2026</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年結束人口紅利期。</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">月老年人口數超過幼年人口數,老化指數突破</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">100%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,估計到</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2060</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年,老化指數高達</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">400%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">他說,根據推估,</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年估計每年出生人口數會是最後一次高於</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬人。</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2022</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年國發會低推估人口數將開始負成長,</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2025</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年最樂觀估計總人口數高峰</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2380</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬人,至</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2060</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年僅剩</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1710</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬人到</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">1950</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">萬人。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">卓輝華指出,過去各級政府採加法、乘法的開發土地和土地財政思維,未來應該改採減法的開發土地策略,政府該思考國土計畫如何適應人口減少趨勢,達成區域均衡的目標?建築業者是否應採減量開發,以因應供需均衡?未來可能有越來越多的空屋情況下,還需要社會住宅嗎?高齡化的房地產商機在哪裡?</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .5gd; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph; line-height: 23.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">他強調,既然人口可能從</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 微軟正黑體; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';" lang="EN-US">2025</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: '微軟正黑體',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年後逐年遞減,老年人口不斷增加,政府和產學研各界更應重視人口結構改變帶來的衝擊,包括國土規畫、土地開發、住宅政策與房地產市場都跟著改變,必須提前重視與因應。</span></p>